Welcome to the second edition of my Fantasy Football Forecast, which will be published periodically until the NFL season kicks off Sept. 5 and then weekly after that.
Every fantasy league has an owner or two who will make risky picks in an attempt to prove they are smarter than those relying on an online mock draft. They expect a player returning from an injury to regain his form or put their faith in a rookie who was the talk of the actual draft.
The so-called experts picking teams in ESPN’s 16-round mock drafts for 10- or 12-team leagues are just as guilty. That explains why Anthony Richardson is the second quarterback picked in the 12-team league and fifth in the 10 despite having surgery to repair his right shoulder.
That Richardson is right-handed should be a cause for concern for the Colts and any fantasy owner who drafts him. Buffalo’s Josh Allen is the first quarterback to go in both mock drafts and rightfully so. After that, quarterbacks are picked regardless of how they performed in 2023.
Fifteen quarterbacks are picked in the 10-team draft and 16 in the 12. Detroit’s Jared Goff is not picked in either draft. San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is only picked in the 12-team draft. Those two quarterbacks led their respective teams to the NFC Championship Game last January.
Like Purdy, Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins is also picked in just the 12-team draft. Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields is the only one to go solely in the 10-team draft. Like Goff, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is not picked in either draft after leading the league in passings yards (4,624) last season.
Quarterbacks are losing fantasy value because owners immediately go after running backs and wide receivers with at least two needed at each position. Focusing on just two positions early in the draft would leave you rummaging through the scrap heap to fill all the other spots.
I played in two fantasy leagues last year and won both after spending my third-round pick in each draft to take Allen and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Having a quarterback who consistently produces solid numbers will be an advantage against opponents who took whoever they could get in the later rounds.
In ESPN’s two mock drafts, 11 of the 31 quarterbacks are picked go in the 10th round or later, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams belong to that group in each draft. The others are Purdy (11th round), Fields (14th) and Cousins (16th). Forty-five running backs and 57 wide receivers are picked before Purdy is selected as the 126th overall pick.
Tight ends are being picked higher than ever because fantasy owners just need one and having Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta or George Kittle can be a big advantage each week. Quarterbacks can be that as well.
