Seventeen of the top 25 NFL salaries in 2024 belong to quarterbacks, but there is little chance 17 quarterbacks will be among the top 25 picks in your fantasy draft. Most fantasy owners are of the belief that they must pick running backs and wide receivers as soon as possible because they will need at least two at each position.
That is a sound strategy if every other owner in your league is thinking along the same lines. ESPN did just that in its 10-team mock draft with 17 wide receivers, 14 running backs and two tight ends going before a quarterback was selected. That means drafting the 14th best running back is better than taking any quarterback.
ESPN has Buffalo’s Josh Allen being the first quarterback drafted with the 34th overall pick. That would the fourth pick in the fourth round. Allen accounted for more touchdowns (29 passing and 15 rushing) in 2023 than any other player, but ESPN has 13 running backs with fewer rushing touchdowns going ahead of him.
Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts was the first pick in the fifth round of the mock draft despite matching Allen in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in 2023. ESPN has five quarterbacks going in the fifth round when nervous owners figure they had better select a quarterback before having to settle for Gardner Minshew.
The point of all this is that going against the grain in your draft can pay dividends. Drafting an elite quarterback can give your team an advantage at that position in every game. The same goes for tight ends and that explains why ESPN predicts Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Detroit’s Sam LaPorta will go in the third round.
Kelce was my second-round pick in my Yahoo draft last year. My first-round pick was San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, so having the one of the best running backs and the top tight end allowed me to be the first to take a quarterback when all the other owners continued to plow through running backs and wide receivers.
That quarterback was Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Although Mahomes did not produce his typical numbers in 2023, he had only one game without a touchdown pass and just two with fewer than 200 passing yards. And when my team was in the playoffs, Mahomes threw seven touchdown passes in the final three weeks.
And yes, my team won the championship in large part because I went against the grain with my first three picks instead of mindlessly going along with the flock.
My strategy through years of playing fantasy football has been to draft a quarterback and wide receiver or tight end from the same team in what I call the “double whammy.” The reward of scoring more points from each time the two connect outweighed the risk of the Chiefs offense being shut down and neither player doing much of anything.
Most owners make a point of not drafting two players from the same team because they will be without both on a bye week. Conceding one week is inconsequential when compared with what those two players will do for your team every other week. One bad meal at your favorite restaurant will not make you consider going elsewhere thereafter.
